[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 030839
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
500 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

CHRIS IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED IN A HURRY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY
FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 1010 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO
FAR IS ONLY 38 KNOTS. HOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE
CIRCULATION HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS... AND THIS IS VERY GENEROUS.  I WAS TEMPTED
TO FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVEN DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A
STEADY STATE CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF CHRIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. ACCORDING TO ALL GLOBAL
MODELS...A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...CHRIS...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE SYSTEM...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN FIVE DAYS. THE
DILEMMA IS THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. IT COULD WEAKEN
FURTHER AND DISSIPATE OR COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH. I AM IN FAVOR
OF WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/0900Z 20.3N  66.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  68.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.8N  70.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 21.2N  72.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 21.5N  74.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 22.5N  79.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 23.0N  84.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 23.5N  89.0W    35 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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