[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KMFL 282214
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-290415-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
613 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...HEADLINE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING
THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST GULF COAST FROM CHOKOLOSKEE NORTH, INCLUDING THE COLLIER COUNTY
COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING THE NORTH
COAST OF FLORIDA BAY.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY WHERE ONLY AN INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

A FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS
MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH, AND ON THIS MOTION ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE ERNESTO MOVES
BACK OVER WATER TONIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, ERNESTO WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS, WIND 39 MPH OR GREATER, ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. DESPITE THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THE FORECAST INTENSITY, ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PREPARE FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO CHECK STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER AS WELL AS
FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR GENERATORS. A BATTERY
POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. HURRICANE SHUTTERS SHOULD BE PLACED
BEFORE SUNDOWN THIS EVENING, OR NO LATER THAN TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS SHOULD
PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO ACTION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND LATE TUESDAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE
LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE
LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A TRAILER OR IN
OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 7 AM TUESDAY.

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY
FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS, IN LOW-LYING AREAS
OR HAVE DAMAGED ROOFS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE AT THAT TIME.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, EVACUATION ORDERS FOR BARRIER ISLANDS, LOW-LYING AREAS
AND MOBILE HOMES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARCO
ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE, ISLES OF CAPRI, MANUFACTURED HOMES
AND LOW-LYING AREAS. DECISION ON EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE AROUND NOON TUESDAY.

EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK, BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK AND BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL
PRESERVE ARE CLOSED. ALL STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS STAGE, IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON EXACTLY WHAT
THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND ON PAST EVENTS OF
SIMILAR DIRECTION, SPEED AND INTENSITY, A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND
THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI
BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD HAVE THE WIND BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND
THEREFORE WOULD CAUSE LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. THE LATEST TRACK ALSO HAS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WINDS FOR THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING FLAMINGO, BUT ANY
SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO
THESE AREAS.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET. ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A
STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD
AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY
MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE
GLADE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD
THE EASTERN SHORE FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF
THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE
THE EFFECT WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE.

THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN FORECAST.

...WINDS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 39 MPH OR GREATER,
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND, 58 MPH OR GREATER, WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL
START AFFECTING MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING, THEN SPREAD ACROSS METRO
BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN SECTIONS OF
COLLIER COUNTY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE, WHICH CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS,
WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD
CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA IN AUGUST
OF LAST YEAR WHEN MANY AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WERE WITHOUT POWER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DOWNED TREES.

GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN
KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF
FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE
STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39
MPH, RANGES FROM 70 TO 75 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES, TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 27 TO 35
PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, AND 17 TO 25
PERCENT OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS
AROUND 8 PERCENT OVER METRO EAST COAST LOCATIONS AND 5 TO 7 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM
WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL SOUTH FLORIDA ENDS UP GETTING
FROM THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES MAY FALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE
TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF
ERNESTO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH
THE RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. HISTORICALLY, MANY WEAKER TROPICAL STORMS
AND DEPRESSIONS AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PRODUCED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER
2000 THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 15
INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER,
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS, SPREADING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FEET.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FEET. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY.

ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY, TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. OVER THE COLLIER COUNTY WATERS,
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ANY CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING STRONGER WIND AND HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COLLIER COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS.

MARINERS SHOULD MAKE PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY
OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

MOLLEDA

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