[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTBW 290915
HLSTBW
FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-291530-

TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
515 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING OFF THE CUBA COAST AND BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE AND 78.9 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...OR ABOUT 332 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. ERNESTO IS NOW MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT
14 MPH AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUSTAINED WINDS IN THIS CONVECTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 45 MPH.
JUST BEFORE 4 AM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECORDED A
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 37 KNOTS...43 MPH.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE
AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL
AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE...LEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...AND
FOR ALL OF POLK...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.

THESE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS LATER THIS
MORNING. ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD REQUIRE WARNINGS
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE SUNCOAST.

...WINDS...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND REACH
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN RAIN BANDS OR THUNDERSTORMS
IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH IN STRONGER SQUALLS BY LATE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR WINDS WILL MOVE INTO DESOTO...POLK...AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR
SOUTHWEST AND DROP BELOW 20 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE
IN MUCH OF LEE COUNTY...THEN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 IN
CHARLOTTE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...MOST OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY...AND IN
POLK COUNTY MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 27.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE
UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THE STORM PASSES
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD INCREASE
TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INLAND FLOODING...
OCCASIONAL RAIN SQUALLS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD UP THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

...TORNADOES...
A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...BEACH EROSION...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
SURF AND SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
BECOME A THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. NOW IS
THE TIME TO REVIEW HURRICANE PLANS AND CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING
THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

BE READY TO IMPLEMENT SOME OF YOUR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD
WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR
COUNTY.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A
MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE EVERGLADES. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THE
IMPACTS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WOULD BE MARGINALLY GREATER.

FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE
TRACK AND THUS THE THREAT FOR HIGHER WINDS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR CONTINUING INFORMATION.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1115 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

BSG

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