[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS MOVING BENEATH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPRESSING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N30W 8N48W 6N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N FROM 40W-45W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY CLIPPING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS W ALABAMA INTO THE GULF OVER MOBILE
BAY SSW ALONG 24N92W INTO MEXICO NEAR 19N96W AND IS PRODUCING
GALE FORCE SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. DENSE OVERCAST CLOUDS
ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 27N85W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY
UPPER AIR REMAIN OVER THE W GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N FROM 85W-91W AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 24N TO OVER THE SE US. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND A SECOND STRONGER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W
GULF BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N82W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W
OF 70W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS S
OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N FROM 64W-70W. THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. THE AREA N OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 11N61W ALONG 15N77W TO THE TIP OF W CUBA IS UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS...JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE FROM 14N80W-19N86W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SW OF THE
DRY UPPER AIR W OF 77W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 63W EXTENDING
OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 31N72W. DRY UPPER AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC W OF 51W. STRONG
SURFACE WINDS COVER THE AREA GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS ALONG THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST.
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH 800 NM NE OF BERMUDA
COVERS CENTRAL AND W ATLC EXTENDING OVER FLORIDA. STRONG DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS IN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N46W S TO 11N60W INCLUDING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 32N24W SW TO 20N41W.
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED JUST S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 25N19W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THIS RIDGE IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/250 NM OF
LINE FROM 18N47W TO BEYOND 32N28W. OVER THE TROPICS...AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 3N38W N TO NEAR 18N33W.

$$
WALLACE





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