[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N20W 4N40W 4N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 35W-52W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 52W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1043 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N93W IS PRODUCING
20 KT NELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND NEAR 70F OVER S FLORIDA.  COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM  24N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF.  EXPECT
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SURFACE NELY FLOW FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO BELIZE ALONG 24N80W 19N88W.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE N OF FRONT.  A 1008 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS N
FROM THE LOW TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN
79W-83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. WLY ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO PUSH A BIT MORE SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N70W 24N80W.  A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N65W 22N74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 61W-70W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N15W 31N30W 32N35W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT.  A 1040 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 40N32W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
20N35W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-40W.  A RIDGE
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA N OF 10N E OF 20W.

$$
FORMOSA




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