[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111113
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N17W 3N35W EQ50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 17W-23W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM S
OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER AFRICA E OF 10W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SW US AND W
MEXICO AND IS APPROACHING THE W GULF. LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N TO SE LOUISIANA COAST. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC AND COVERS THE E GULF DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE SE GULF TO 27N E OF 88W BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT
AREA. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ATLC
EXTENDS OVER THE E US AS WELL AS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY
AN UPPER HIGH OVER COLOMBIA EXTENDING N INTO THE W ATLC ALONG
77W. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N W OF 74W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMBINED
WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF
12N W OF 80W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST
OF PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVER THE SW ATLC
S OF 25N W OF 50W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF
25N BETWEEN 53W-75W. WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET IS ALONG THE BASE OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1017 MB LOW NEAR 32N56W SW TO 28N60W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TO JUST E OF THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N
OF 25N. A NARROWING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROAD MID/UPPER
RIDGE OF THE CARIBBEAN/W ATLC FROM NEAR 25N51W NE TO BEYOND
32N42W. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA ALONG 25N22W TO A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 20N34W THEN SW TO THE W TROPICAL ATLC
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 12N55W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 24N39W S TO 16N38W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 31W-38W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS UNDER DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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