[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142325
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 5N30W 3N40W 1N52W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SFC TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF ALONG 86W/87W S OF 27N IS DRIFTING
E. EXTENSIVE RAIN AND CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF E OF
90W. A WEAK LOW CENTER  NEAR 24N76W DRIFTING E NE.  SWIFT UPPER
LEVEL WLY FLOW IS SHEARING THIS ACTIVITY AND SPREADING DEBRIS
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONGER CELLS ALSO
POPPING UP OVER SE FLORIDA WITH A CLEAR WARM ADVECTION PROFILE
AND LOW LEVEL JET NOTED IN THE KMFL SOUNDING. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS A RATHER UNIFORM W-SWLY ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ABOVE TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO.
A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET ORIGINATING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...IS BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO THE NRN GULF. THE
SFC TROUGH APPEARS AS IF IT MAY BE MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE FL BIG BEND AREA TO THE NE GULF.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE FEATURE WILL MOVE E/SE THROUGH FL
THROUGH EARLY SAT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN ITS WAKE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN THE FAR WRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. A PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF PERSISTS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE IS EXTENDING N THROUGH 80W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR EXTENDS THROUGH THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN.
TRADE WINDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED THRU SAT AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NE OF THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC...
A GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010MB LOW NEAR 28N34W...IS
CURRENTLY N OF 28N E OF 41W WITH N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT AND
SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS ADVECTING DEBRIS
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS W TO E THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY W OF 70W.
THE SFC PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN ATLC AREA IS
DOMINATED BY THE S AND SW PORTION OF A 1034 MB SFC HIGH NEAR
38N52W. THIS HIGH MOVES SLOWLY E TO SE THROUGH SAT AS THE
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE CAROLINAS BECOMES COLD AND
PUSHES E TO SE TO 30N65W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SAT. A PAIR OF
WEAK SFC TROUGHS ARE ON THE SRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH
BUT ARE NOT GENERATING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE FIRST EXTENDS
JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 24N69W...THE OTHER IS
ABOUT 500 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 10N52W 17N51W. A
SFC RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE FAR E ATLC PORTION FROM A 1034 MB
CENTER OVER NW SPAIN. ZONAL WLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE DEEP
TROPICS BETWEEN 10N-20N...AROUND AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH JUST TO
ITS S.

$$
FETS




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net