[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230519
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 5N21W 2N34W 5N49W 4N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 12W-19W AND FROM 22W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN
11W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF N OF 21N W OF 89W WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
NEAR 30N89W S TO 26N92W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST N OF VERA CRUZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 24N92W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING WITHIN 75 NM
OF LINE FROM N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W CONTINUING OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
AND INTO THE W ATLC. THE STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
FROM NEAR 24N84W ACROSS FLORIDA FROM TAMPA TO JACKSONVILLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 19N73W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 15N FROM
67W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND OVER THE MONA PASSAGE IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA NE TO BEYOND 32N72W. DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS
GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NE TO BEYOND 32N79W. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM 35W-55W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W SW ALONG
26N42W TO 22N52W AND A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OVER THE FAR E US. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST TO
THE E NEAR 28N20W WITH A LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING FROM
31N31W TO 22N34W WITH A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
FAR E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net