[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N9W 6N24W 2N35W 6N47W 6N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
8W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 46W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE RUNS FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO WEST TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN NEAR 21N110W...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WEST OF 30N87W 25N92W 20N96W...AND THEN FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA
TO MISSISSIPPI AND BEYOND. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE...COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF
WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THROUGH 30N85W TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE MEXICO COAST
FROM 23N TO 24N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 25N
BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N95W
27N98W 31N100W...GOING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS INLAND
IN TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 31N79W TO 30N80W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY WAS EXTENDED INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N86W AT 23/1500 UTC...
FOLLOWING SOME CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N
TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE ARE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NOT-WELL-ORGANIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS MOVING OFF HAITI INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A TROUGH
RUNS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA NEAR 13N79W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS
TROUGH IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL 32N73W ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CUBA-TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS RIDGE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE FROM VENEZUELA ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING AT LEAST 17N TO 18N ALONG 60W. UPPER
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS THROUGH 32N73W TO WESTERN CUBA. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W. FLOW FROM
500 MB TO 350 MB FLOW IS MIXED IN WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO SOME DEGREE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES STRONGLY CYCLONIC EAST OF 50W. ONE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
31N41W TO 20N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N35W TO
28N42W CURVING TO 23N48W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN
CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W. A REMNANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 24N23W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N34W TO
23N35W TO 18N37W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN TO LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...WITH MIDDLE TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON TOP OF THEM MOVING NORTHWARD. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM SOUTHERN
MOROCCO TO 29N23W BEYOND 32N22W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 250 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N59W AT THE COAST OF GUYANA TO 10N44W TO
13N29W OVER AND BEYOND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT




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