[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW INLAND ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE RUNS FROM MEXICO JUST WEST OF NORTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS IS THE SAME WAVE
THAT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH NOW IS ABOUT 25 TO 30 NM EAST
OF THE SOUTHEAST BELIZE COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W...FROM THE WATERS JUST NORTH
OF EASTERN HONDURAS TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS IN
BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE... GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS WESTWARD. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 8N42W 12N36W 15N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN
27W AND 33W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 26N27W
TO 12N40W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM BRAZIL
AND THE GUYANAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AND EVENTUALLY
PASSING ON TOP OF THIS TROUGH AND THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 40W ARE BEING PUSHED EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD
BY THIS FLOW.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD IS APPARENT BETWEEN JAMAICA AND PANAMA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT WITH THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 18N80W 16N83W 12N86W.
AN ELONGATING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA RIGHT NOW.
THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS ORIENTED ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS...
FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLOMBIA.

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 9N23W 10N31W 9N38W 7N47W 5N53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN
11W AND 13W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 4N
TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 11W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 23W
AND 30W...AND FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 14N
BETWEEN 45W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS NOW RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 31N70W
TO 27N76W...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO 23N87W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO MEXICO IN BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE REST OF THE FRONT IS OVER INTERIOR
MEXICO...AS A COLD FRONT FROM 18N97W TO 23N101W...AND STATIONARY
FROM 23N101W TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 98W AND
THE COAST OF MEXICO. ALL THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AND
WHATEVER MAY BE CAUGHT UP IN THE WHOLE 91W/92W TROPICAL WAVE AND
1009 MB SURFACE LOW SCENARIO OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
SOUTHEAST OF 27N83W 24N88W 23N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...NORTH OF 27N...
AND WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF 27N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
ELSEWHERE WEST OF 30N69W 25N69W 21N75W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST
OF 18N80W 16N83W 12N86W. AN ELONGATING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
IS ORIENTED ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS... FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
TO NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA WITH
A RIDGE. THE RIDGE STARTS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N76W IN BETWEEN JAMAICA...HAITI...
AND CUBA...AND GOES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 26N72W.
THE 91W/92W TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO BE THE WEATHER FEATURE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION AT THE TOP OF THIS
BULLETIN FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT THIS TROPICAL WAVE
AND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
21N68W...TO THE EXTREME EASTERN END OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
TO 14N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN
69W AND 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES WITH A RIDGE...WHICH STARTS
OUT AT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN BETWEEN CUBA...
JAMAICA...AND HAITI...CONTINUES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
26N72W AND GOES BEYOND 32N64W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 33N33W TO 25N45W TO 18N56W. THE SOUTHERN END OF
A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 30N34W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 35W AND 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
EAST OF THE 26N27W 12N40W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 22N30W TO 28N23W AND TO A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 37N20W.

$$
MT







This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net