[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 TO 15 KT.
BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROUGH
IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC...IS SHEARING MUCH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND STRETCHING HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL TO THE NE OF THE
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM
10N-13N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W/82W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS LITTLE...IF ANY...
SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE POSITION IS MAINLY BASED
ON CONTINUITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-11N. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN A VERY STABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT KEEPING ANY ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N24W 9N35W 7N40W 5N52W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION OUTLINED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 25W-35W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER
WESTERN AFRICA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 8N-15W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DOMINATES THE GULF
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH BRISK NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT
CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW
CLEARED NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF AND EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARE STILL AFFECTING THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS LINGERING ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE IN
MEXICO WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. A
COASTAL SFC TROUGH LIES ALONG 97W IN THE WRN GULF FROM 19N-25N.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SFC
TROUGH OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVEL...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 93W OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ARE ADVECTING
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE W CARIBBEAN INTO CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
PREVIOUSLY NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE HAS MOVED INLAND AND
WEAKENED. AS OF 2100 Z...THE SFC LOW IS NEAR 16N89W. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS AS
THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN IN THE
NW CARIB INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
LOW AND A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E STALLING FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS QUIET TONIGHT WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IN
PLACE ON THE S AND E SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST
SE OF JAMAICA. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 72W FROM 14N-20N WHICH
INCLUDES THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE RELATED
TO THIS FEATURE. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA.
15-20 KT TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EXIST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN.
STARTING FROM W TO E...SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN U.S. COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W. THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N68W THEN CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SFC OBS SHOWS
NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
NE ALONG 24N64W 32N56W AND BEYOND. SFC RIDGING IS ALSO
ESTABLISHED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
SITUATED N OF THE AREA. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TROPICS FROM 32N34W ALONG 20N46W 16N54W
TO THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SWLY
FLOW...E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARING
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC AND SPREADING ITS MOISTURE AND
OTHER DEBRIS TROPICAL MOISTURE NEWARD TOWARDS THE CANARY
ISLANDS. THE FAR ERN ATLC IS COVERED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS
CENTERED OVER WRN AFRICA.

$$
GR










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