[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGH
34N32W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N37W TO
22N39W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N41W
TO 6N48W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THIS TROUGH...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N22W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 90 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THROUGH 32N36W TO 24N40W...AND WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 24N40W 17N44W 7N49W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W...AND WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N33W 16N32W 15N33W 13N34W. OTHER
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W...AND NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND THIS WAVE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY OR IN OBSERVATIONS. ITS POSITION IS BEING EXTRAPOLATED
FROM ONE MAP TO THE NEXT ONE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO IT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS WAVE GOES
THROUGH BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND EASTERN EL SALVADOR
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

...THE ITCZ...
11N14W 9N20W 12N32W 10N43W 8N47W 6N54W 5N59W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA FROM 7N TO
9N BETWEEN 11W AND 14W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND
15W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND
51W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TO INTERIOR MEXICO...AND IT CROSSES MEXICO AS UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 89W AND
92W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH GOES
FROM 23N86W TO 26N90W TO 28N92W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO
ARE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 94W AND 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 18N88W 20N79W. BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN THIS AREA WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ON TOP OF IT. ADD LINGERING AFTERNOON HEATING AND ANY POSSIBLY
LINGERING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH REACHES NORTHERN HAITI AS OTHER FACTORS WHICH MAY
BE AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING TOWARD AT LEAST 70W.
MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE EAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST...NOW
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EAST OF 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN BROAD LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...INCLUDING IN NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 31N/32N
ALONG 59W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD 30N60W. THIS TROUGH STILL IS PROVIDING SOME
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT TO THE SURFACE COLD
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N54W TO
27N60W TO 24N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 24N65W TO 20N72W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 31N52W 27N58W 24N63W 22N70W 20N76W. THE NEXT BIG FEATURE
IS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGH
34N32W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N37W TO 22N39W TO
A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N41W TO 6N48W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST
OF THIS TROUGH...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 18N22W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN
90 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N36W TO
24N40W...AND WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N40W
17N44W 7N49W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 40W AND 41W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N33W
16N32W 15N33W 13N34W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
30W AND 41W...AND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

$$
MT












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