[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK
WAVE SIGNATURE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLC BASIN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 12N30W 10N44W 6N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM LIBERIA TO GUINEA
BISSAU. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 38W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 5.5N FROM 29W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES MOVING
ACROSS TEXAS AND WILL MOVING INTO THE NW GULF LATER TODAY. BROAD
WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 22N87W TO OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N92W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF TO OVER
FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W WITH THE UPPER
HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS COVERING THE E
CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.
THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 18N W OF 67W INCLUDING THE N CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS TO THE YUCATAN. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 12N ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS CLEAR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR
32N54W SW ALONG 25N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. THIS IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION S OF 22N FROM 69W-77W INCLUDING THE N CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY UPPER AIR IS
FILTERING S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N31W S TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N41W INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS NEAR 7N50W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE
WITHIN 500 NM W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ALSO COVERS THE W
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG UPPER HIGH
IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N22W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W
TO 35W AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N...THUS
COVERING THE E ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING AN ABUNDANCE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 450/500 NM OF LINE FROM 12N32W 24N29W
TO BEYOND 32N18W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING A SMALL AREA
OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM 13N34W-20N30W.

$$
WALLACE




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