[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071819
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. THE POSITION FOR 07/1200 UTC WAS HELD AT 51W BASED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N36W TO
18N40W TO 7N52W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE
AROUND THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 48W
AND 52W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10N 6N20W 6N30W 7N40W 8N50W 8N54W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 33W AND
39W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH RUNS FROM MISSOURI/KENTUCKY THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH OF 21N...AND NORTHWEST OF 22N97W
AT THE MEXICO COAST TO 26N90W TO 29N90W ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE
COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE MEXICO COAST ABOUT 60 NM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS SINCE THE
07/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
TAMPA...AND THEN STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD TO NAPLES...CONNECTING TO
A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS THE REMNANT OF AN EARLIER
SURFACE FRONT. THE TROUGH GOES FROM THE WATERS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST...CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...REACHES THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...IS ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF JAMAICA...AND IT REACHES
THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF HAITI. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WAS
ANALYZED ALONG 24N80W 23N70W 23N65W AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPED
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AND OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE WARM
FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 07/1500 UTC MUCH MORE TO THE NORTH...WELL
OVER FLORIDA...AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW EASILY COVERED FLORIDA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH...GOING FROM CUBA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N76W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND
THE MEXICO COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING FROM 24N TO 26N EAST OF 85W
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE STATE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO BEYOND 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ARE FROM
23N TO 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 72W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 16N83W ABOUT 60 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN END OF HONDURAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO COVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EAST OF 83W. THE COMPARATIVELY DRIEST AIR IS FROM 10N TO 18N
EAST OF 73W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HAITI DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS RELATED TO A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 18N72W TO 17N78W TO 20N82W AND 23N83W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
12N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AT 76W AND NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA AT 84W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE TO LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 12N TO 17N
BETWEEN 57W AND 66W MOVING WEST WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OF CLOUDS. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 28N50W TO 24N60W
TO 23N65W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND
65W...AND NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 44W AND 55W...IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THIS STATIONARY FRONT. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR
IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 64W. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N36W
TO 18N40W TO 7N52W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE
AROUND THIS WAVE. A SURFACE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
24N37W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 32N29W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N26W...ABOUT 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT




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