[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE SIGNATURE PARTIALLY DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION DUE TO TO SATELLITE SIGNATURE
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N27W 8N41W 8N51W 9N62W.
BROAD AREA SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 27W-45W AND FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE SW GULF FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NW TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER
THE SE US/W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
COVERING THE GULF E OF 92W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1012 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N89W. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF LEAVING THE AREA SHOWER FREE THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC DIPS
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 78W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OVER N BELIZE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM
SE OF THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA N TO 17N
W OF 71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N
W OF 75W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS COLOMBIA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. AN UPPER
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG
WITH VERY DRY UPPER AIR. THUS...REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 73W USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SE US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 21N W OF 67W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH 32N70W CROSSING THE BAHAMAS AND
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH OVER PUERTO
RICO EXTENDS A RIDGE N OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 25N66W TO
BEYOND 32N58W PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE
FROM 23N72W TO BEYOND 32N65W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N38W S
ALONG 20N42W THEN SW TO 11N60W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N34W SW ALONG 24N40W THEN W TO
22N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N
FROM 27W TO THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 42W INTO THE E HALF OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 37W-52W. STRONG UPPER
HIGH REMAINS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC W OF THE ABOVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE



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