[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND IT REMAINS LESS OBVIOUS THAN IT WAS A FEW DAYS AGO.
SOME CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD FIELD
STILL IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. A TROUGH
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N51W AND GOES TO 22N58W...
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N66W...TO THE AREA
OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
IS BEING PRODUCED ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE
IS MOVING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS NORTH OF 15N60W
13N65W 12N70W BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 7N30W 10N42W 12N53W 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
14W AND 35W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 1W AND
9W JUST SOUTH OF AFRICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 8N36W 10N44W 14N51W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO
INTO THE GULF WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. THE SOUTHERN END OF
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA TO 25N/26N ALONG 82W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE END OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND
THEN IT CURVES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N51W AND
GOES TO 20N62W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N66W...TO THE AREA OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. THOSE AREAS
OF MOISTURE ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND
78W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W...NEAR THE ITCZ.
A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO IS OBSERVED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N74W TO 29N75W TO 23N73W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BEING
SUPPORTED BY THE 32N74W 23N73W TROUGH...PASSES THROUGH 32N72W
TO 28N76W...CUTTING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND ENDING
NEAR 25N/26N ALONG 82W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N69W 26N70W.
A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N51W AND
GOES TO 22N58W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N66W...TO THE AREA OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 40W TO AFRICA...EAST OF THE 29N51W
TO 17N66W TROUGH. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N50W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT GOES FROM 30N52W AND CURVES TO THE 29N47W
TRIPLE POINT. A WARM FRONT CURVES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO
27N42W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 25N47W
AND 20N54W. THE STRATIFORM CLOUD FIELD APPEARS TO HAVE
A SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT TO IT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE
END OF THE COLD FRONT AND 20N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W.

$$
MT




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