[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140615
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT EASY TO FIND.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALREADY DISSIPATED BY
NOW...FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W. THAT PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE PART OF THE TRADEWIND FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO
18N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W ARE PART OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N49W TO
21N55W TO 12N63W TO THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N68W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS UNDER THE SAME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AS THE 49W/50W TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N
TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.

...THE ITCZ...
13N17W 10N20W 8N30W 10N39W 10N41W 9N45W 10N48W 11N51W 11N55W
10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO
SOUTH OF 25N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN U.S.A...FROM NEW MEXICO
INTO TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N49W TO
21N55W TO 12N63W TO THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR
11N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH
OF 14N WEST OF 76W...MOST PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 84W AND 90W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA GOING
INLAND IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W
TO 22N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOSTLY NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 63W AND 76W. SOME DRY AIR HAS MOVED SOUTH OF 30N TO 25N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO
29N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 25N79W 26N72W 31N67W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N49W TO 21N55W TO 12N63W TO THE
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS
FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N48W TO 26N50W AND
22N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 32N
BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES
FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 10N47W TO 16N42W TO 26N34W
TO 32N31W.

$$
MT




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