[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CLEAR CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW
TO MID CLOUD FIELD IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS
AROUND 0900 UTC THIS MORNING DEPICTED THE WAVE WELL. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED E OF THE AXIS...FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 47W-51W...WITH UPPER WSW FLOW OVER THE WAVE.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. VERY LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC TURNING
NOTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 61W AND 68W. THIS WAVE REMAINS VOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE MAY BE REMOVED FROM FUTURE
MAPS...WITH THE TURNING AND CONVECTION IN THE REGION SEEMINGLY
MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...AND EXTREMELY SMALL SCALE. SMALL
PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION JUST E OF THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA
BORDER.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N30W 6N40W 12N48W 9N60W.
THE ITCZ CONVECTION IS MORE ACTIVE TODAY...WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG WITHIN 150NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 41W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH
COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NW OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WAS ALIGNED THROUGH THE SE GULF BETWEEN
TAMPA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 1200 UTC. FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE SE US AND
INTO THE GULF FROM ITS ORIGIN OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE GULF BETWEEN WRN CUBA AND SW
FLORIDA. STRONG 20-30KT W TO NW WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH A BIT LIGHTER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS AT
BUOY 42055 IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PEAKED AT 16 FT AT 11 SEC THIS
MORNING...WITH BOTH PERIOD AND HEIGHT UNDERDONE A BIT BY WW3.
REGARDLESS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE STRONG HIGH OVER NRN MEXICO WEAKENING AND DRIFTING ENE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PAIR OF MARGINAL TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH JUST
E OF THE NICARAGUA COAST IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS W OF 70W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE
PRONOUNCED TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE SE U.S. IS SUPPORTING
THE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHICH IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SE GULF. SIMILAR
CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. E OF 70W...UPPER W/WNW
FLOW DOMINATES ON THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE ATLC. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...10-15KT TRADES
DOMINATE E OF 77W SW OF AN ATLC HIGH.  10-20 KT S/SE FLOW FOUND
FURTHER W AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND STALL
BETWEEN BELIZE AND CENTRAL CUBA TOMORROW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY PUSHED INTO THE FAR SW NORTH
ATLC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS NOTED 100-150NM OFFSHORE FLORIDA...WHICH SEEMS MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AS DEPICTED ON THE 1500 UTC
MAP. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC...EXTENDING NE FROM THE SE BAHAMAS. STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALSO RIDGING SW THROUGH THE AREA NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
A 1032 MB CENTER NEAR 40N40W. S OF THIS HIGH LIES A DEEP LAYER
LOW NEAR 28N55W...THAT HAS A SFC REFLECTION AS A 1013MB CENTER
NEAR 28N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED N OF THE LOW
FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 45W-53W. STILL EXPECTING A SMALL TO
MODERATE ENE SWELL FROM THIS REX BLOCK LIKE PATTERN TO ARRIVE AT
EXPOSED FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS BEACHES TOMORROW AND LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS N THROUGH MUCH OF THE E
ATLC...WITH AN AXIS ALONG 34W. THIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID TO
UPPER MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
LIKELY FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 30W-50W. THE STRONG SFC HIGH IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLC ALSO HAS RIDGING EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE E
ATLC...WHILE A WEAK FRONT CLIPS THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WILLIS




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