[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 82W AND
83W...FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W...FROM 14N TO 15N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W...AND SOUTH
OF 12N BETWEEN 79W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...
12N13W 9N20W 7N30W 6N40W 7N52W 5N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOCATED FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N
EAST OF 53W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER...
TO THE MEXICO COAST JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN BELIZE.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD...FROM MISSOURI MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS MOVING INTO THE PRE-EXISTING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHOSE BASE REACHES INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
GULF WATERS UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR 13N74W...
TO 16N78W TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
AN 82W/83W TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 19N. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN
82W AND 83W...FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W...FROM 14N
TO 15N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W
AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND
85W...AND SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 79W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA COAST FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN
73W AND 74W IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL
DRY AIR...WHICH IS SOUTH OF 15N EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE PRE-EXISTING TROUGH WHOSE BASE REACHES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W BEYOND 32N64W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THIS SAME PART OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING
THAT IS TRAVERSING THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SOUTH OF 31N WEST OF 73W. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH HAS BROUGHT THE COLD AIR TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A.
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 30N66W.
A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 30N66W TO 25N70W TO 20N74W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N
TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W...AND FROM 28N TO 29N WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 67W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 20N69W
BEYOND 30N58W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N47W TO 22N48W TO 17N50W TO 10N53W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N51W 18N52W 12N54W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N23W IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 11N BETWEEN THE AFRICA
COAST AND 27W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE ITCZ FROM 6N25W TO 6N39W
TO 7N53W.

$$
MT




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