[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 02/2100 UTC IS NEAR
47.1N 52.2W MOVING NORTHEAST 35 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT
43 NM/80 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. A TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 225 NM/420 KM FROM THE
CENTER. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS IS THE LAST
PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
ISAAC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ISAAC IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AFTER PASSING NEAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND. ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS DISCONTINUING THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
9N33W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO DISTINGUISH ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W JUST AS EASILY MAY BE MORE
RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N30W.
A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N37W TO 20N50W.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 50W...CUTTING ACROSS THE
CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN BOUNDARIES OF THE ITCZ AND POSSIBLY THIS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...MORE PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ...FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS JUST EAST OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N67W.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 75W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
MOVING AROUND A RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 16N67W
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF 18N60W 17N64W 14N67W 12N67W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISAPPEARED.
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS MOVING
FROM 75W TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SOME
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALSO
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 70W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 80W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND PARTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA JUST WEST OF BELIZE. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...
10N12W 8N21W 9N32W 8N36W 8N40W 9N45W 9N48W 9N54W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE GOING FROM SIERRA LEONE TO GUINEA. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 29W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER INTERIOR MEXICO
FROM 19N102W TO 24N104W TO 27N104W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HAS MOVED FROM INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 95W/96W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
SPREADING ACROSS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO AT LEAST
WESTERN CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF 88W.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS JUST EAST OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N67W.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 75W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS MOVING AROUND A RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
16N67W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF 18N60W 17N64W
14N67W 12N67W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
83W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISAPPEARED.
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS MOVING
FROM 75W TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SOME
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALSO
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 70W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 80W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND PARTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA JUST WEST OF BELIZE. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE
GONE FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO JUST OFFSHORE IN THE MONA PASSAGE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN HAITI.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N77W SOUTH
OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS GOES FROM
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N72W BEYOND 32N67W. THE FLOW TO
THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH IS HEAVILY LADEN IN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR. IT IS GOING UP AGAINST A RIDGE WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
21N75W 26N69W BEYOND 32N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N65W
26N69W 21N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
20N76W IN EASTERN CUBA TO 21N79W TO 21.5N86W IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 9N33W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM
THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 30N27W 26N27W 22N31W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 35N BETWEEN
26W AND 33W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DISTINGUISH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W JUST AS EASILY MAY BE MORE RELATED
TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N30W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 25N37W TO 20N50W. A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 30N30W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT GOES FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N29W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM
THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N27W 26N27W 22N31W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 35N BETWEEN 26W AND
33W.UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 50W...CUTTING ACROSS THE
CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARIES OF THE ITCZ AND POSSIBLY THIS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER.

$$
MT




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