[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST NEAR LONG BEACH AT 01/0340 UTC TONIGHT. ERNESTO IS
CENTERED NEAR 34.5N 78.0W AT 01/0600 UTC WHICH IS INLAND NNW OF
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75
KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE E
COAST FROM MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO DELAWARE. ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND TRACKING TO OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SAT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 17N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 10N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 30W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 20N WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
OBSERVED WITH INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT NEAR THE LOW
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 11N23W 10N27W 9N40W 11N50W
9N61W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE
E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 90/120 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 16W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N E OF 32W TO INLAND OVER W
AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
5N-15N FROM 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG DEEP LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE S GULF N OF 20N FROM 86W-97W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1009
MB LOW OVER SW GEORGIA ALONG 29N85W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N90W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS/MEXICO. VERY DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR IS KEEPING MOST OF THE GULF CLOUD AND SHOWER
FREE TONIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S AND
E OF THE BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO
IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE E GULF N OF 22N E OF 86W. ALTHOUGH THIS
IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DUE
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL
AMERICA INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS W OF 87W. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE
WSW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N72W TO NEAR 15N82W. DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 76W AND S OF 17N W OF 80W WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES
REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT
AS IT IS PRODUCING BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL... EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND TROPICAL STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE E COAST
FROM MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO DELAWARE. BROAD UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO EXTENDS A RIDGE S OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND
NE N OF BERMUDA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR S AS 24N AND THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS W OF 75W. AN OUTER RAIN
BAND FROM ERNESTO IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 76W-81W. AN UPPER
TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THIS RIDGE WITH THE AXIS FROM 31N60W
THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N67W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N60W TO 23N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 62W-74W. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE NE ATLC NEAR 32N21W WSW TO AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 28N40W TO 27N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE UPPER LOW. THIS HAS FORCED THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60W
SOUTHWARD WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 19N24W. ANOTHER AREA OF AFRICA
DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES COVERING
THE E ATLC FROM 10N-25N E OF 45W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS
THE E HALF OF THE ATLC E OF 60W.

$$
WALLACE


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