[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030622
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N
TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. A FEW OTHER CELLS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN
18W AND 20W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
11.5N 36W. THIS IS A NEW FEATURE AT 03/0000 UTC. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 15N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 40W AT
02/1800 UTC HAS BEEN DROPPED AT 03/0000 UTC. A SURFACE
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11.5N 42W REMAINS. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD BEEN ALONG THIS WAVE EARLIER.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. OTHER CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W NEAR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 55W FROM 10N TO 20N.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N17W 13N21W 14N24W 14N30W 12N35W 11N45W 10N53W 11N61W.
CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ
FROM 3.5N TO 4.5N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPIN AWAY ANTICYCLONICALLY
FROM TROPICAL STORM JOHN WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO WEST OF 103W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FAR WEST TEXAS BEYOND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N85W IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 26N90W TO ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N96W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 18N98W JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W JUST OFF
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD OUT ACROSS INTERIOR
MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W...COVERING THE GULF
AND ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MEXICO WEST OF THE TEHUANTEPEC
AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
23N72W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO JAMAICA TO NORTHEASTERN/NORTH
CENTRAL NICARAGUA. ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
IS NOT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH. DRY UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BEING
PUSHED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EVEN THE AREA
OF THE ITCZ INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING...DISSIPATING...AND RE-DEVELOPING DURING THE LAST SIX
HOURS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ AND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NICARAGUA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 23N72W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER COVERS THE WATERS FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF MEXICO/
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 67W AND 84W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W
TO 27N52W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N46W TO 31N57W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 31N57W
BEYOND 32N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
27N54W BEYOND 32N44W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N37W TO 26N46W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS SOUTH OF THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N TO 30N
BETWEEN 53W AND 73W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 33N22W TO 27N25W 27N35W TO ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N44W TO 20N52W. A SHEAR AXIS EXISTS
BETWEEN 20N52W AND THE 23N72W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

$$
MT

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