[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 40.4W AT 03/2100
UTC MOVING NW AT 12 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM SUSTAINED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
37W-43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 25W/26W. A 1008 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 16N25W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
20W-28W.

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED JUST E OF THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG
58W/59W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING W AT 12 KT.  A SMALL INVERTED
V-SHAPE PATTERN IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SOMEWHAT LIKE A
TROPICAL SURGE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 55W-61W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO
THE ABC ISLANDS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT.  THIS TROPICAL WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V CLOUD
PATTERN WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
67W-73W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N17W 13N30W 10N50W 9N60W.
OUTSIDE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. SIX AND THE
TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 28W-32W...AND FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N82W 25N90W
20N95W.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AT 5-10 KT...NLY N OF THE TROUGH AND
SLY S OF THE TROUGH.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 80W-86W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
91W-97W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W.  DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...CUBA...AND
THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 76W-85W.  A SMALL UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N91W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ANOTHER SMALL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO
NEAR 21N100W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER.
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 86W-100W.
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS A TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 69W/70W...SEE
ABOVE.  A 1006 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.
5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE OVER MOST OF THE SEA EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHERE 20 KT EASTERLIES ARE NOTED.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ ALONG
9N BETWEEN N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 75W-84W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A  RIDGE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
15N W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N73W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 70W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N60W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AT
10-15 KT AND PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BASE OF A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W.  A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N42W 27N50W 28N60W 32N67W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180
NM E OF FRONT E OF 50W.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL NEAR 42N13W.  A RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 26N32W.  EXTENSIVE
DRY AIR ALONG WITH A DENSE SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA TO
60W MAINLY N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... BESIDES THE LOW OVER
THE BAHAMAS...AND THE HIGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N43W.  A RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 37W.

$$
FORMOSA






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