[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 05/0300 UTC IS NEAR
17.3N 44.8W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 15.5N. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N27W 20N28W 15N31W 9N38W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
GULF DE LA GONAVE AND THE CANAL SUD...THE WATERS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF HAITI. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 9.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N77W TO 15N74W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N16W 15N28W 13N32W 13N35W 160N40W 14N46W 10N56W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN
GUINEA...MOVING INTO EASTERN GUINEA-BISSAU...POSSIBLY WITH
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPIN AWAY ANTICYCLONICALLY
FROM WHATEVER ENERGY REMAINS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN...
FROM NORTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N88W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MOST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXCEPT THE NORTHERN PART. A SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST OF THE U.S.A.
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW POURS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING AWAY FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO BAHAMAS TROUGH FROM 31N74W TO 27N78W. SOME OF THIS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REACHES HONDURAS AND ENDS UP IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. OTHER PARTS OF THIS FLOW SPIN AROUND A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL WEST CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 14N81W A BIT
EAST OF THE NICARAGUA COAST. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 80W AND THE CENTRAL
AMERICA COAST. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING
IN THESE CLUSTERS DURING THE LAST FIVE HOURS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES
FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N74W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 27N78W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA...INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
A BIG HIGH LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 22N60W 27N65W BEYOND 32N68W.
A SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR THE
57W/58W TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 17N59W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N32W TO 33N40W TO 28N54W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 26N46W. A STATIONARY FRONT
GOES FROM 26N46W TO 26N53W TO 25N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES
FROM 20N29W TO 26N25W BEYOND 33N22W.

$$
MT


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