[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 2 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W EQ30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
3S44W. ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS AFFECTING AFRICA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS OF THE
TONIGHT...FROM 1S-12N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90NM N/30NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
9W-15W AND WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN 28W-31W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 35W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FIRED UP AGAIN ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE SE FLOW AND
SUBTLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SOME OF THESE ARE SPILLING INTO THE
WRN GULF JUST SE OF BROWNSVILLE FROM 23N-26N W OF 96W. UPPER
MOISTURE/CIRRUS OVER THE CONVECTION IS SPREADING E OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF WITH UPPER WSW FLOW BEHIND RIDGING EXTENDING NNE
THROUGH FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE WRN PORTION OF AN ATLC SFC
RIDGE OVER THE AREA...AND 5-15 KT RETURN FLOW DOMINATING.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND THEN
WEAKEN INTO WED IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE
N CENTRAL WATERS. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE NW GULF
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH MOIST SE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1026 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THESE WINDS ARE
DRIVING PATCHES OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SEA...MOST CONCENTRATED FROM 13N-16N E OF 73W WHICH
SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE. SIMILAR
MOISTURE IS POOLING UP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FROM ITS ORIGIN IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS
ADVECTING SCATTERED PATCHES OF CIRRUS ENE THROUGH THE BASIN
ESPECIALLY S OF 15N. DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT ARE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIB. ATLC
HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NE WINDS THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS
THEN DIMINISHING THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS
THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. A 1026 SFC HIGH NEAR 31N70W DOMINATES
THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE OLD BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 32N33W AND CONTINUES SW TO 21N41W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 15N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED IN THE BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD SEEN WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EVIDENT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN...CELLULAR STRATOCUMULUS NOTED
OVER MUCH OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 19N. THE LARGE NLY
SWELL THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR LED TO THE
ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH EXPOSED BEACHES IN
PUERTO RICO...SEE STATEMENTS FROM WFO SAN JUAN FOR MORE INFO.
THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A
SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING ABUNDANT 10-20 KT E/NE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF
30W.

THE RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL SHIFT S WHILE WEAKENING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST LATE WED INTO THU BRINGING SHOWER POTENTIAL AND MODERATELY
INCREASING WINDS/SEAS FOR THE AREA BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA.
THE FRONT IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FAR E ATLC.

$$
WILLIS


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