[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 2 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W EQ35W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
3S44W. IMPRESSIVE AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS AFFECTING AFRICA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 1S-7N BETWEEN
THE 1W-9W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
12W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 2S-3N
BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION PUSHING E FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE WRN GULF
FROM 22N-26N W OF 94W. BOTH LOW LEVEL REFLECTIVITY AND STORM
RELATIVE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOW SOME MESO
CYCLONIC TURNING IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING
EXTENDING S THROUGH BAJA...ALONG WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL SE FLOW.
UPPER MOISTURE/CIRRUS OVER THE CONVECTION IS SPREADING E OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE DOMINATING W TO WSW UPPER FLOW.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF ARE FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE
WRN PORTION OF AN ATLC SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA...AND 5-15 KT
RETURN FLOW DOMINATING. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN INTO WED IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS. POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE NW GULF WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL SE FLOW AND THE MID TO UPPER TROUGHING W
OF THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1026 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THESE WINDS ARE
DRIVING PATCHES OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SEA...MOST CONCENTRATED FROM 13N-16N E OF 78W WHICH
SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE. SIMILAR
MOISTURE IS POOLING UP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CARIB FROM ITS ORIGIN IN THE TROPICAL
ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING SCATTERED PATCHES OF CIRRUS ENE THROUGH
THE BASIN ESPECIALLY S OF 14N . DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ARE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIB. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NE WINDS THROUGH TUE
WITH WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS
THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. A 1026 SFC HIGH NEAR 30N68W DOMINATES
THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE OLD BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 32N32W AND CONTINUES SW TO 20N41W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 15N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED IN THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD
SEEN WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
EVIDENT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED CELLULAR STRATOCUMULUS
NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N. THE LARGE
NLY SWELL THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR LED TO THE
ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH EXPOSED BEACHES IN
PUERTO RICO...SEE STATEMENTS FROM WFO SAN JUAN FOR MORE INFO.
THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A
SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING ABUNDANT 10-20 KT E/NE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF
30W.

THE RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL SHIFT S WHILE WEAKENING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE FRONT IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE THE SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE FAR E ATLC.  LOW PRES CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF NEW
JERSEY WILL AFFECT THE AREA N OF 25N MAINLY BETWEEN 40W-60W LATE
TUE THROUGH EARLY THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST LATE WED INTO THU BRINGING SHOWER POTENTIAL AND
MODERATELY INCREASING WINDS/SEAS FOR THE AREA BETWEEN FLORIDA
AND BERMUDA.

$$
WILLIS






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