[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 2 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W EQ40W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1S-7N BETWEEN 6W-13W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 30W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N66W IS PRODUCING
10-15 KT E-SE RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER
THE W GULF FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 95W-98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 26N108W
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
WITH PREDOMINATELY SW-W UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADES COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE SEA
WITH PREDOMINATELY SW-W UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...MOSTLY S OF 15N...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N66W.  A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA.  A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N31W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 25N35W
20N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W
OF 60W.  THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 40W-60W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  WLY ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W.  EXPECT A NEW LOW TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-60W
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE LOW AND FRONT TO MOVE
E WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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