[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 1N33W EQ50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 18W-23W AND S OF 2N
BETWEEN 33W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
AXIS RUNNING FROM WRN CUBA THRU THE FL PANHANDLE AND WELL NWD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SWLY UPPER FLOW TO THE W OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IS TRANSPORTING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION W OF 91W. THE CLOUDS APPEAR
THICKER N OF 23N BETWEEN 91W-94W WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY EMBEDDED AS INDICATED BY MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR WHICH SHOWS
A FEW SHOWERS OVER SRN LOUISIANA. AT THE SFC...THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS
AIDING IN THE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND PRODUCING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SE-S RETURN FLOW. LOOKING AHEAD A COUPLE OF DAYS...A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SEEP INTO THE N GULF TOMORROW VEERING
THE WINDS TO THE N BEHIND IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THIS MORNING QSCAT PASS AND SFC OBS SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AREA
OF 20 TO 25 KT ELY TRADES E OF 82W EXCEPT N OF THE COLOMBIAN
COAST WHERE THE WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER...TO 30 KT. THESE
WINDS ARE BLOWING LEFT OVER CLOUDS FROM A DISSIPATING FRONT IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY S OF 15N. EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS INDICATED BY THE OBS
IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE IS ALIGNED E-W ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEN EXTENDS
NWD FROM COLOMBIA TO WRN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE E
CARIB IS LEADING TO A STRONG CAP ABOVE THE MOIST LOW-LAYER
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE DOES EXIST OVER PANAMA AND PARTS OF THE EXTREME SW
CARIB TRIGGERED BY THE ITCZ AND S-SWLY FLOW TO THE W OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. LOOKING AHEAD A COUPLE DAYS...THE WEAK SFC RIDGE N
OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ALLOWING THE TRADES TO SLACKEN
ALSO REDUCING THE FEED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
QUIET CONDITIONS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. IN
THE WRN ATLC...A WEAK SFC RIDGE COVERS THE REGION WITH TWO
EMBEDDED HIGHS...A 1023 MB NEAR 29N73W AND A 1022 MB NEAR
28N62W. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN IS KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
TO FRESH ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE IS ALSO BUILDING E INTO THE AREA WITH THE AXIS RUNNING
FAIRLY N-S FROM THE W CARIB TO FLORIDA CONTINUING WELL N TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC LIES ON THE E
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND S OF A VERTICALLY STACKED LARGE LOW PRES
SYSTEM NEAR 40N42W. THIS CONFLUENT PATTERN IS AIDING IN THE
SINKING OF AIR ALOFT KEEPING PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHALLOW. THERE IS A SWATH OF SCATTERED LAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W-55W AND
N OF 31N W OF THERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF LOWS N OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER ZONAL TO WSW. THIS IS PROVIDING LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N26W TO
23N33W THEN CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 14N48W.
THIS FRONT HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ONLY A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF IT. WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING LIES JUST E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
BETWEEN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 31N18W. IN THE FAR
SE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE UPPER FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE SW IN
RESPONSE TO EXTENSIVE FLAT RIDGING OVER AFRICA. THIS DIFFLUENT
PATTERN IS PROVIDING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION
IN THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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