[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050449
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 3N17W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
23W-44W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
SW AFRICA FROM 1W-5W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
18W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE W ATLC
COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF AND THE SE US. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER E TEXAS/MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES HAS MOVED TO OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM A 1004 MB LOW OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N83W TO
A 1015 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N94W CONTINUING TO
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF S OF THE FRONT W OF 94W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N
FROM 87W-94W TO THE N GULF COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CONSISTING OF A WIND SHIFT AND NOT
PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEAKER N TO E WINDS S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE GULF ON FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA TO W CUBA NEAR
22N80W COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SW WIND TRANSPORTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
INTO THE W PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA S OF 12N W OF 82W. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR OVER THAT AREA. LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 80W. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A 1015 MB HIGH E OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 27N73W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
15N FROM 35W-65W WITH THE A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS N OF THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 994 MB LOW NEAR
34N45W TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 36N41W INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N42W
SW TO 26N54W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 27N63W.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE NE FURTHER OUT OF THE REGION TRAILING
THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 46W. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A UPPER HIGH S OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 8N22W COVERING THE AREA E OF 35W. E/W UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE SAME UPPER
HIGH ACROSS THE ATLC TO NEAR 50W CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ
AXIS TO THE S.

$$
WALLACE




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