[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051013
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 3N17W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
30W-38W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA
FROM 3W-7W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-29W AND
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE W ATLC
COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS/E MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING A COLD
FRONT FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W INTO THE
GULF TO A 1014 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N93W
CONTINUING TO INLAND OVER E MEXICO JUST S OF TAMPICO. HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE
FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N
FROM 85W-93W TO JUST OFF THE N GULF COAST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WEAKER WINDS S OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE GULF ON FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA TO W CUBA NEAR
22N80W COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SW WIND TRANSPORTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
INTO THE W PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 120
NM ALONG THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA S OF 12N. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR OVER THAT AREA. LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AREA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 80W. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A 1015 MB HIGH E OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N73W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
15N FROM 35W-65W WITH THE A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS N OF THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N39W SW ALONG 26N47W TO 25N54W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 26N62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A
UPPER HIGH S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 9N22W COVERING THE
AREA E OF 35W CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE S.
E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE SAME
UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE ATLC TO NEAR 50W.
$$
WALLACE



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