[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060519
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 3N28W 1N38W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 44W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S47W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST FROM 3W-8W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE US THROUGH ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N89W TO A THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES CONSIST OF A 1010 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 24N89W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING W OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 18N91W APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THIS LOW IS ALSO ATTACHED TO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF
28N E OF 89W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SE OF THE LOW. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
N AND W GULF WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND CLEARING SKIES. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COVER THE SAME
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE GULF BY SAT
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W ACROSS
PUERTO RICO INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH
SW WIND TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH ONLY
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC HAS
RELAXED TO PRODUCE LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO
THE FAR NW ATLC DRAPING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE AREA EXTENDING THROUGH 32N69W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TO BEYOND 32N60W. WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS N OF THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 24N63W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM 30W-53W WITH THE A SERIES OF
UPPER LOWS REMAINING N OF THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N33W SW TO 25N45W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE BULK OF THE
ATLC E OF E OF 65W...THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A UPPER HIGH S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 8N23W COVERING THE AREA E OF 30W AND CONTINUING TO
SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS CONVECTION. E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE SAME UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE ATLC
TO NEAR 42W.

$$
WALLACE




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