[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE
EQ AT 37W AND CONTINUING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-20W...AND FROM 5S-EQ BETWEEN 26W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 08/2100 UTC....A 1015 MB LOW IS ABOUT 175NM E OF
BROWNSVILLE TX IN THE WRN GULF. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS
E FROM THE LOW TO 26N88W AND A TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO
20N96W. EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID CLOUD DECK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS AFFECTING THE GULF NW OF A TUXPAN MEXICO TO BILOXI MS
LINE. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SFC LOW IN THE GULF WITH HIGH
PRES OVER ERN TEXAS HAS LED TO PERSISTENT STRONG NE WINDS AND
WIND WAVES IN THE NW GULF...WHICH HAS PROMPTED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR BEACHES ALONG S TX. SEE STATEMENTS FROM WFO
BROWNSVILLE FOR MORE INFO. MUCH SMALLER BREAKING WAVES
ANTICIPATED IN NRN TX AS THE NE FLOW IS MORE OFFSHORE.
WINDS/WAVES WILL SUBSIDE STEADILY THROUGH EARLY WEAK WITH A
RELAXING GRADIENT...AND MORE OF A RETURN FLOW PATTERN SETTING
UP. CONDITIONS ARE MUCH QUIETER IN THE ERN GULF THIS EVENING
WITH SFC RIDGING AND THE PLEASANT COOL AIRMASS DOMINATING. THIS
AIR MASS WILL STEADILY MODIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
WINDS VEER E TO SE. UPPER FLOW IS HIGHLY W/WSW AT THE
MOMENT...ADVECTING BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS/MOISTURE EWD THROUGH THE
FAR NE PORTION AND BETWEEN TAMPICO AND FT MYERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
IS STILL FAIRLY LOOSE IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS NOW MOSTLY N OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE DRIVING
TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD ACROSS THE BASIN.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED
ALONG THE COLOMBIAN AND VENEZUELAN COASTS S OF 13N BETWEEN
69W-76W. CIRRUS OVER THIS CONVECTION AND EPAC ITCZ CONVECTION IS
SPREADING NE THROUGH THE CARIB WITH UPPER SW FLOW DOMINATING
AROUND RIDGING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING INTO THE WRN ATLC BEHIND A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N52W AND CONTINUES
SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO
RICO ALONG 24N62W 20N67W...AND HAS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM
EITHER SIDE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL SHIFT S THROUGH EARLY WEAK
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA TUE NIGHT. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1025MB HIGH NEAR 32N41W
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. THIS IS
PRODUCING ABUNDANT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER
BETWEEN 30W-50W...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ALSO DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO WELL N OF THE AREA. THE E ATLC OCEAN E OF 45W IS
UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS
ALONG 31N14W 23N21W...WITH ANOTHER ALONG 30N24W 27N26W.

$$
WILLIS


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