[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N19W 1N30W 1N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS W OF
43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
AXIS W OF 20W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING E OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COMPLEX OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS WELL
INLAND OVER E US WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF NEAR
PENSACOLA EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N94W TO INLAND OVER THE RIO
GRANDE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH/TAMPA TO NEAR 23N88W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N TO THE TROUGH E
OF 86W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF TODAY AND BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE W ATLC ON FRI WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF FROM
80W-83W. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE REGION IS
DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N44W TO 30N60W WHERE
IT PULLS UP STATIONARY TO A 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE W ATLC FROM THE E US
AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N74W WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E OF NE FLORIDA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
76W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 47W-67W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. BROAD
UPPER LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO AFRICA EXTENDS S TO OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 20W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E
OF THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N23W AND EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICS. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC
E OF 50W FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

$$
WALLACE




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