[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121906
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWWW UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 3N20W 2N34W 1N48W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 41W AND
INTO SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE N/CENTRAL GULF AND CONNECTS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE WEST GULF NEAR 26N94W. THE STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES WEST THROUGH THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER THEN
EXTENDS NORTH WELL INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N86W
IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY
MARKED BY A CHANGE IN DEW POINT WITH THE CONVECTION CONSTRAINED
TO THE NEAR PREFRONTAL THROUGH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A SECOND COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE
GULF FRIDAY. WIDE SPREAD W TO SW UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF
WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N78W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE E PACIFIC OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN BY THE SWLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. DRY AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE REGION IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA ALONG 32N40W TO 38N55W THE NW TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 30NWWW.

THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E OF NE FLORIDA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
76W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 47W-67W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. BROAD
UPPER LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO AFRICA EXTENDS S TO OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 20W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E
OF THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N23W AND EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICS. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC
E OF 50W FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

$$
WALLACE







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