[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N19W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
28W-40W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 28W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR W OF 10W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO OFF THE E US AND ACROSS
THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
W ATLC DISSIPATING INTO THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ALONG 25N90W TO TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO N CUBA NEAR 23N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
TO INLAND OVER CUBA E OF 88W. DRY AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF LEAVING THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINNING ON SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W GIVING THE
W CARIBBEAN S TO SW UPPER FLOW ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
GENERATING SCATTERED  SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND AND
POSSIBLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST W OF 81W. DRY AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N75W
DISSIPATING ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N76W ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N79W
TO N CUBA NEAR 23N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 28N74W TO THE N
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N79W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE REGION ALONG 30N FROM 35W-55W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPPING INTO THE REGION
ALONG 32N38W 28N49W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 31N62W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT
E OF 45W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC TO 35W. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N13W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 20N28W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N27W
TO 23N47W. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND
LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE.

$$
WALLACE


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