[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N7W 1N20W 1N30W 1N40W 2N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
1S53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
6W AND 10W ARE MOVING TOWARD 10W...STILL OVER LAND IN AFRICA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS FLOW
IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
PRESENT AT THE SURFACE IN THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS GAINING STRENGTH OVER LAND. THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS
FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
TO BE IN THE CENTRAL-WESTERN GULF AFTER 24 HOURS...TO EXTEND FROM
THE EASTERN-TO-THE CENTRAL GULF AFTER 48 HOURS...AND TO HAVE
PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ENTIRELY BETWEEN 48 HOURS
AND 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 10N60W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TO 12N70W TO 15N79W BEYOND 17N88W IN BELIZE.
THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 80W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN LINES
OF CONFLUENT WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN POINT OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST REACHES
32N70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN POINT OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTH OF 32N
BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
GIVING ENERGY TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N67W 27N80W 27N75W. A SEPARATE 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N61W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM
THE 31N61W LOW CENTER TO 26N63W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE
31N61W LOW CENTER TO 28N52W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W
IN THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N40W TO
28N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH 34N36W 29N39W 17N43W IS PROVIDING ENERGY FOR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N32W 28N52W COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...FROM A 27N16W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
20N20W...IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOROCCO/WESTERN
SAHARA.

$$
MT



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