[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N30W 1N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 7W-12W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-4N BETWEEN 30W-37W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY TRAVERSING S FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVING SE.  DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-25N
BETWEEN 80W-82W.  A FIRE IS NOTED IN THE FLORIDA EVERGLADES NEAR
26N81W.  A SMOKE PLUME EXTENDS ESE TO BIMINI.  HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT NLY WINDS
OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES NRN MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH AXIS ALONG 98W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF
90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 90W.  EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO MOVE E AND BE ALONG 90W BY 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT HIGH
PRESSURE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NE MEXICO
AND S TEXAS W OF 96W WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  ELY TRADES ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA
FROM 8N-11N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W.  MOSTLY WLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO TRAVERSE CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SLY SURFACE FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1004 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N44W 27N50W 22N59W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 42W-46W.  1022 MB
HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 29N34W.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N18W 27N22W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A RIDGE IS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  WLY FLOW IS E OF 20W.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN 30W-45W.  A WEAK
TROPICAL JETSTREAM DEPICTED BY THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
FURTHER E ALONG 10N30W 22N20W 23N10W.

$$
FORMOSA



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