[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N58W OR ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE
S  WINDWARD ISLANDS. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DID NOT
FIND A LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING ITS LAST FLIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES W NEAR 15 KT. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 57W-64W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 20N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION COVERS
THE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN
22W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
WEAK LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 33W-45W.
ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 69W S OF 19N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERS THE AREA
FROM 66W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
14N TO OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 67W-73W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W S OF 21N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE
AIR OVER CARIBBEAN...THUS ONLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEING GENERATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 12N21W 9N32W 9N48W 12N56W
10N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N34W TO 7N37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE ITCZ WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US DIPPING TO THE N GULF
COAST AND INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF
LOUISIANA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 25N E OF 95W COVERING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SW TEXAS ALONG 29N96W TO ACROSS
THE S FLORIDA...THUS DRYING OUT THE SW GULF. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH
OVER SE TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE INT HE E PACIFIC REGION JUST SW OF CENTRAL
AMERICA COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
INDUCING AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDING E/W ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N FROM 70W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOW LEVEL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
MOVING W INTO THE COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N W OF 75W. THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DIE OUT. THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1010 MB LOW IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
REMAINS SHOWER FREE THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR INFORMATION ON THE 1010 MB LOW JUST E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER
THE E US INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N W OF 73W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N70W TO ACROSS
FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM ESE OF THE FRONT E OF
76W AND FROM 25N-30N W OF 76W TO OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC
THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N66W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES MOSTLY DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR THAT COVERS THE ATLC E
OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB JUST W OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE





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