[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N61W...MOVING WEST
10 KT. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING LITTLE BY LITTLE
AND HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS POINT BY
02/0900 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA AGAIN
LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THIS WAVE NEAR 14N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION REALLY
SEEMS TO BE RELATED ONLY TO THE ITCZ AND NOT THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION REALLY SEEMS
TO BE RELATED ONLY TO THE ITCZ AND NOT THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM HAITI ALONG 72W/73W
SOUTH OF 20N TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF
21N TO NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM 16N TO 21N
BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTH OF
10N/11N BETWEEN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA AND 82W. THIS
PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...
13N16W 14N23W 11N28W 8N41W 8N45W 10N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE
LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE U.S.A. NORTH OF 30N EAST OF
90W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO 28N85W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N79W...
ACROSS FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W...TO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO 28N92W THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 93W. A SURFACE RIDGE POKES ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS TOWARD WESTERN CUBA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT FOR THE SMALLER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 70W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THE 72W/73W TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD.
THE 83W/84W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION IS NEAR AND SOUTH OF CUBA.
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N61W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTH OF 10N/11N
BETWEEN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA AND 82W. THIS
PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N73W TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 29N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 27N80W 29N73W BEYOND 32N63W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 29N79W BEYOND 31N70W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N53W.
A BIG RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A 33N27W NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE
31N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
33N45W TO 29N59W TO 25N74W.

$$
MT


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