[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 27W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 20N40W TO 6N37W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. EXACT
WAVE POSITION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE THE ABUNDANCE OF
DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 71W-75W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS WELL DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION REMAINING OVER SW MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N
W OF 98W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER HIGH THAT IS ALONG
THE COAST OF NEAR 21N98W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N26W 12N38W 11N45W 11N52W
11N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 32W-44W AND FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 48W-61W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE IS GIVING THE E GULF
MOSTLY E UPPER FLOW WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER HIGH ENHANCING ACTIVITY OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CONTROLLED BY
DRY STABLE AIR AND A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
27N89W...THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND
SHOWER FREE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N86W
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 23N79W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
12N60W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WHERE A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS N TO OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S TO OVER
HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N E OF 67W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. CONVERGENCE
OF UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO
OVER HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA BETWEEN 67W-78W INCLUDING AND JAMAICA.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS
PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA
W OF 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS CONTROLLED BY DRY
STABLE AIR AND REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE THIS
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 25N W OF 72W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION
E OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N63W SW TO JUST OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 22N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N67W THROUGH A WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 30N72W TO JUST E OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N76W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/WISELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 20N BETWEEN 54W-65W. DRY
STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 65W. AN
UPPER HIGH IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N60W
EXTENDING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING A
SECOND RIDGE AXIS N TO BEYOND 32N52W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS
UPPER HIGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 58W-62W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N43W S TO 23N45W AND IS
ENTRAINING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N41W TO 32N39W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
26N. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 25N34W. DRY
SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES
WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE



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