[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE
JUST N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE
JUST N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. HIGH
AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS STRETCHED WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN
58W-63W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE THAT IS BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH MASKING
SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSCURED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT IS OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 12N24W 10N38W 9N54W 10N58W
THEN BECOMING DISTORTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 42W-58W AND FROM
4N-10N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE EXTENDING OVER THE
GULF N OF 26N...AN UPPER LOW IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL COVERS THE
SE S OF 25N E OF 90W...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE
IS INLAND OVER THE SE US GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AS WELL WITH HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE N GULF COAST N OF 28N E OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR WITH A 1016
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N91W. THUS THE GULF IS MOSTLY
CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA S OF 27N E OF 84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N86W COVERING THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W GENERATING SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. A PAIR OF
UPPER HIGHS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
NEAR 16N76W AND 15N67W. BENEATH THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH IS THE S
PORTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N78W ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE SW ATLC PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N ACROSS CUBA AND HAITI BETWEEN
73W-80W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN
120 NM OF 65W FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N FROM 73W-82W. THUS THE CARIBBEAN
IS FAIRLY ACTIVE TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 73W. AN ELONGATED UPPER
LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N73W PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N HAITI AND E CUBA FROM
71W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N73W ACROSS THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH 32N33W SW TO 25N50W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE
E ATLC E OF 30W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE ATLC SO THAT
NEITHER FEATURE IS ABLE TO GENERATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A VERY
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE


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