[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W AND 19W
SOUTH OF 20N...STILL EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A 1006 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N ALONG THE WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND
22W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. THIS FEATURE IS OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PRODUCING
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. SANTO
DOMING0 REPORTED TSRA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND RAIN WILL BE
ON INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING MAINLY THE MONA
PASSAGE. AS THE DAY GOES ON...MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD
SPREAD FIRST OVER THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND AFTERWARD OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE
ENTIRE AREA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...IS COVERED BY THIS PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...AND SOME OF IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CENTER.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AROUND JAMAICA FROM
15N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM
14N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
NORTH OF HONDURAS TO 20N WEST OF 83W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

...THE ITCZ...
9N21W 10N29W 10N45W 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 28W
AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N
BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...AND
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 70W...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS CENTER
COVERS THE AREA FROM 30N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CUBA AND
20N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN 60W AND 85W IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO 24N85W TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N87W. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150 NM SE OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO 25N87W 23N90W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AROUND JAMAICA FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
77W/78W SOUTH OF 21N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 21N
BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF
HONDURAS TO 20N WEST OF 83W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N31W TO 25N48W
TO 20N60W TO 14N62W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
A 68W/69W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN
68W AND 72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IS COVERED BY THIS
PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...AND SOME OF IT
IS MOVING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CENTER. ONE TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 21N ALSO ADDING SOME ENERGY FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.
THE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS MAY BE
RELATED TO THE LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
33N31W 14N62W TROUGH...AND THE ITCZ.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 70W...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE PANAMA COAST TO 11N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT ALL THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE 78W/79W TROPICAL WAVE AND
THE ITCZ.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
36N35W TO 32N42W TO 27N54W TO 26N66W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N78W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THE 33N31W
TO 20N60W 14N62W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

$$
MT


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