[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N23W 5N38W 4N44W EQUATOR50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-31W AND FROM 5N-7N E OF 15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 37W-46W ENHANCED BY A PERSISTENT SFC TROUGH
ALONG 40W/41W FROM 4N-11N.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WITH THE GOES-E SATELLITE IMAGERY DOWN TONIGHT ITS DIFFICULT TO
GET A COMPREHENSIVE PICTURE OF THE WEATHER DETAILS. BASED UPON
IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON...SFC OBS...AND A 00Z QSCAT OVERPASS
WX CONDITIONS APPEAR FAIRLY QUIET BEHIND A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN FLA STRAITS TO JUST N OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN SURGING SWD TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W.
THE SFC FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
NLY 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT EVEN THIS WILL
DIMINISH SHORTLY. USING A COMBINATION OF GOES-W WV IMAGERY AND
MODEL DATA...A WELL DEFINED CUT OFF MID TO UPPER LOW IS SPINNING
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ADVECTING A PLUME OF CLOUDINESS INTO THE WRN
GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER W TO NW UPPER FLOW
INDUCING STABLE CONDITIONS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STREAMS OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND MUCH OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 72W OR SO. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY BOTH
N AND S BUT LITTLE OVER THE ISLAND AT THE MOMENT. LIKE THE GULF
OF MEXICO...THERE IS NO GEOSTATIONARY SAT IMAGES TONIGHT OVER
THE REGION W OF 75W WHICH MAKES IT CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE THE
CURRENT STATE. THE LAST IMAGE AT 1645 Z SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AND SOME SPIN TO THE CLOUDS IN THE SW CARIB. THIS IS
LIKELY STILL OCCURRING TO SOME DEGREE AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL DATA
AND SOME CYCLONIC VEERING IN THE SFC OBS. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION DUE TO THE WEAK PRES PATTERN BROUGHT ABOUT BY
THE COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
32N61W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE FLA STRAITS. A 23Z
QSCAT PASS REVEALED 20-25 KT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
28N. A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A PERSISTENT 1012 MB LOW
IS STILL SPINNING NEAR 25N51W. THIS LOW HAS BEEN
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE
PULLING NWD AND MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
LOW. SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY LIES FURTHER E IN AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT AREA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 41W-43W. ANOTHER WEAKENING
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N28W AND EXTENDS SW TO 25N41W.
LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING FEATURE. SFC
HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1029
MB HIGH JUST E OF THE AZORES.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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