[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 5N40W 2N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
11W-14W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
28W-37W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 28N80W TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W...AND CONTINUES
AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N90W.  A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER
TO E TEXAS NEAR 29N95W.  THE FRONTS ARE DRY AND ARE FOUND
PRIMARILY BY WIND SHIFTS.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS S OF THE
FRONTS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
PRODUCING SWLY WINDS.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO FLORIDA.  EXPECT...THE FRONTS TO
RETROGRADE BACK N AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER W OF 75W...AND PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 75W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 70W.  UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND S OF 15N
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...THE TRADEWINDS TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N64W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FURTHER S OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 26N74W 24N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A SIMILAR
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 22N65W TO 18N68W.  AGAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  ANOTHER
MOSTLY DRY TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 28N52W
21N54W.  A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 37N35W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 50W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N42W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N25W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ALSO IN THE TROPICS NEAR 16N41W.  DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
HELPING PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

$$
FORMOSA




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