[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N25W 3N35W 1N46W EQUATOR51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-32W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MAINLY STATIONARY FROM THE WRN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N98W THEN NWD
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE. DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY
DETECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MUCH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS OVER S FLA...THE
KEYS AND THE STRAITS. THIS MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY TRIGGERED BY AN
ELONGATED SFC TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM WRN CUBA THRU LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OLGA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BENEATH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
ENHANCED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEXT FRONT
...EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY POTENT ONE...WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
CORNER EARLY SAT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE W GULF
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NLY WINDS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WITH
THIS FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OLGA'S REMNANTS IS STILL SPINNING IN THE NW CARIB NEAR
19.5N84W...ANALYZED 1009 MB MOVING W 10-15 KT. BUOY 42056 HAS
BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN ESTIMATING THE MINIMUM PRESSURE. WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED...DEEP CONVECTION IS JUST
ABOUT ABSENT. FAIRLY DENSE CLOUD BANDED STRUCTURES ARE N OF THE
CENTER JUST S OF THE SW PORTION OF CUBA. SHALLOWER SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. A LOW-LEVEL
ELY SURGE IS APPARENT ON NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES ALONG 79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST NEAR THE SURGE LINE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
78W-80W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXISTS E OF THERE
CARRIED BY STRONG ELY TRADES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS
OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN
PORTIONS. STRONG ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE CARIB S OF
14N E OF 67W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
OLGA...ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF S/CENTRAL E FLORIDA...THE KEYS
AND THE FLA STRAITS. THE MOST ACTIVE AREA IS IN THE ATLC WATERS
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND CAPE
CANAVERAL ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE GULF
AND CARIBBEAN SECTIONS ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN. THE RIDGE GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA W OF
ABOUT 55W-60W INCLUDING THE ERN GULF. MID AND UPPER
TROUGHING...SUPPORTING BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...CONTROLS THE
PATTERN E OF 55W-60W. THE LARGEST TROUGH AMPLIFIER IS A DEEP
LAYERED LOW CENTERED SW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 30N21W. A
FAIRLY SWIFT W TO SWLY JET...WITH CORE WINDS IN THE 100-120 KT
RANGE...ORIGINATES NEAR THE SE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
EXTENDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 13N58W 16N39W 29N14W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IN THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 10N BETWEEN
53W-59W SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER JET. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM
SE OF THE JET AXIS...POSSIBLY ENHANCED SOME BY THE DEEP LAYERED
LOW.

THE SFC PATTERN IS MAINLY CONTROLLED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1025
MB HIGH NEAR 30N59W. RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE HIGH
IS PRODUCING STRONG ELY TRADES S OF 25N W OF 40W. A VERY WEAK
1019 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N32W WITH A TROUGH HANGING SW TO
26N36W...PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. A 1016 MB LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 30N21W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER.

$$
CANGIALOSI



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net