[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N32W 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 15W-20W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS ILL-DEFINED WEST OF 20W WITH A
BROAD AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION COVERING
THE AREA FROM 1N-15N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE SE US AND THE GULF WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA
BORDER EXTENDING ALONG 25N92W THEN SLOWER AS IT ENTERS MEXICO
NEAR TUXPAN AT 16/0300 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF OLGA ARE IN THE E
GULF NEAR 25N87W AND IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE WITH HEAVY RAINS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS WELL E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N85W TO OVER THE
E FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WEATHER WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT N
OF 25N THEN EXPAND TO WITHIN 150 NM AS IT APPROACHES THE MEXICAN
COAST. SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GALE WARNINGS W OF THE FRONT AND A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF OLGA
ARE NOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN CREATING A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 15N E OF 73W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. MOSTLY DRY STABLE UPPER AIR REIGNS OVER MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN
67W-83W. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
70W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS S OF 25N FROM 55W-70W INCLUDING THE
NE CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 40W.
UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS AND A JET STREAM
WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDS ALONG 15N35W ACROSS
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 18N16W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
28N62W WITH RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO
WILL CHANGE AS THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE E
GULF AND THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC LATER TODAY.

$$
WALLACE





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