[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
24W CONTINUING ALONG 2S30W 4S40W INTO NE BRAZIL. MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER SW AFRICA AND NE BRAZIL WHERE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXIST.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 1.5N14W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING
WITH A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS/FRONTAL WAVES AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE SHOWS HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
AFFECTING THE NE GULF WATERS E OF 90W...N FLORIDA AND THE SE US.
AT 21Z...A 1002 MB LOW IS NEAR 29N87W WHILE THE SECOND ONE IS
NEAR 27N94W. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED IN BETWEEN
THESE LOWS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AS A COLD FRONT AND EXTEND
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO LATER
TONIGHT...AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY
MORNING. SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE GULF AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE E GULF WHERE THE PRES
GRADIENT IS TIGHTENED BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE GULF AND A HIGH
PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVELS CLOUD LINES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVING
INTO THE SE GULF...UNDER THE SLY WIND FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA WHILE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW US. THIS TROUGH WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE NE SUPPORTING THE LOWS/FRONT LOCATED OVER
THE N GULF. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED
FROM THE EPAC INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF BY STRONG SWLY
WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE
EPAC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DRIEST AIR
LIES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS
INCLUDING ALSO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
IS ENHANCING STABILITY. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY
THE TRADE WINDS ARE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL
NORTH ATLC...PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN OVER THE ISLANDS.
MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
SHOWED 25-30 KT THERE. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIB ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 48W N OF 27N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
PERSISTS OVER THE E ATLC AND GOES FROM A LOW LOCATED JUST W OF
PORTUGAL ALONG THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S
AND E OF THE TROUGH COVERING W AFRICA. DRY AIR IS FOUND ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS...REMNANTS
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE ANALYZED OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC. ONE
RUNS FROM 31N51W TO 27N72W. THE OTHER ONE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEWD TO 26N54W...THEN CONTINUES NEWD AS A COLD
FRONT TO A 1011 MB LOW SITUATED NEAR 36N44W. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE AREA...
WHICH IS AN EXTENSION OF THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT LIES
OVER THE GULF AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. A 1024 MB SFC HIGH IS
NEAR 35N67W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...CUBA
AND THE SE GULF. ANOTHER RIDGE COVERS THE E-CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
GR


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