[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
26W CONTINUING ALONG 1S30W 2S40W INTO NE BRAZIL. MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL WHERE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 2S-6S BETWEEN 40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FEATURE IS A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA. AS OF 09Z...A 1004 MB LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO THEN STATIONARY UP THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE TO SW
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE SFC LOW/FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG
SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS STREAMING IN FROM THE EPAC IS ADVECTING
AND PRODUCING COPIOUS MOISTURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS IN THE NE GULF AND ACROSS N AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
STRONGEST. THIS IS CONFIRMED ON MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR WHICH SHOWS
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 87W N OF 28N. IN
FACT...POSSIBLE TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA.
STIFF S-SWLY FLOW IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE EXISTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PROVIDING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR EARLY FEB.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG S CLEARING MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY
SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE INCREASING THE WINDS AND
ADVECTING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN ON THE DOWNWARD ERN BRANCH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN THE EPAC WHICH EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE W CARIB. THE
DRIEST AIR IS OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SRN CARIB WHERE
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS QUITE STRONG BETWEEN THE RIDGE
MENTIONED AND ANOTHER RIDGE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. SMALL POCKETS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT QUICK MOVING
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY ARE BLOWING
ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIB WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS JUST OFF
THE COLOMBIA COAST. THESE WINDS DEVELOP A SLY COMPONENT IN THE W
CARIB IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. NWP MODELS
SHOW THE TRADES REMAINING MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE UNIFORM ELY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE IN THE SE GULF/NW CARIB ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIB EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE
ATLC AND BEYOND BERMUDA. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET AND COLD FRONT IN THE GULF IS SHIFTING INTO THE
W ATLC N OF 29N W OF 72W. SW SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE SHORTLY IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. S AND E OF THAT AREA OUT TO 50W...PLENTY OF DRY AND
STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES ABOVE THE NRN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE BASE NEAR 27N44W. AN ASSOCIATED
1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 36N41W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO 26N52W CONTINUING AS A SFC TROUGH TO 22N65W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/MOIST UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG WITH SFC CONV
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 36W.
IN THE E ATLC...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED
WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 23W-36W AND AN UPPER
TROUGH DOMINATING E OF 23W EXTENDING FAR S BEYOND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
EXISTS BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE FLAT RIDGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND
THE SHARP DEEP TROUGH IN THE E ATLC. THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO
RATHER DRY STABLE AIR FROM 10N-20N LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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