[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N23W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 33W CONTINUING ALONG 2S38W INTO NE BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LIES TO THE N OF A STALLED OR VERY
SLOW MOVING FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS
THE NRN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SIERRA MADRE SLOPES
IN MEXICO ALONG 24N81W 22N88W 19N93W 25N100W. A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRES GRAD BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SRN
MISSISSIPPI IS PRODUCING SOME STRONG NELY WINDS ESPECIALLY S OF
26N. A PLUME OF THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STEAMING
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION TRANSPORTED AND ENHANCED BY
UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS TO THE E OF A SLOW MOVING SHARP TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC. AVAILABLE
DOPPLER RADAR COVERAGE DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE W GULF S
OF BRO AND LIGHT ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N AND
CENTRAL FL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. GFS
SHOWS THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUING ITS
SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE LIFTING
AND BECOMING ABSORBED. THE SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
MODERATE TO STRONG SIDE IN THE SRN GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES SURGES SWD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION
CENTERED IN THE EPAC WITH A ROUGH TITLED RIDGE AXIS ALONG 6N86W
18N78W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND WELL NWD INTO THE ATLC.
ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
AREA...ESPECIALLY S OF 15N WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS QUITE
STRONG. BELOW THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION. RATHER STRONG ELY TRADES...MAINLY IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE...ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA E OF ABOUT 78W. THESE WINDS
SLACKEN IN THE NW CARIB IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT IN THE S GULF.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX IN THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB AS HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS E.
MEANWHILE...NELY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE NW CARIB
AND S GULF AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER THE SE U.S.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE GULF
SECTION IS IN THE W ATLC ANALYZED ALONG 32N67W 27N76W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WHILE IR IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE
WAY OF COLD CLOUD TOPS...CONSIDERABLE DENSE CLOUDINESS AND
LIKELY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALOFT...A
STRONG RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE W AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC W OF 45W. THIS RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO JUST E OF
BERMUDA. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE S OF 27N. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIES TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WITH TWO EMBEDDED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS. THE MORE VIGOROUS ONE IS VERTICALLY STACKED OVER
THE AZORES...THE OTHER IS UPPER LEVEL LOCATED NEAR 23N33W WITH
THE TROUGH CONTINUING FURTHER SW TO 13N44W. A RELATED SFC
TROUGH/OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM 32N28W 24N36W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
22N-27N BETWEEN 26N-33W. STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN
THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE ALONG 14W IS GENERATING AND ADVECTED A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL
E ATLC SE OF A LINE ALONG 10N38W 23N23W. THIS MOIST/DIFFLUENT
PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ...WHICH HAS BEEN
RATHER INACTIVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

$$
CANGIALOSI




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net