[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AT 44W...TO 1S50W OVER NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 11W-14W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 30N81W 29N86W DEPICTED BY A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE CHANGE.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N87W 21N88W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  THE TAIL END OF A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND S TEXAS ALONG
29N92W 28N97W 27N100W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE FRONT.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO A LIGHT AT 5-10 KT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.  A
110-130 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM MEXICO TO N FLORIDA ALONG
20N100W 26N90W 29N80W.  A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE JETSTREAM AXIS.  EXPECT A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 70W.  SIMILAR CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 83W-88W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
SEA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1016 MB LOW IS JUST N OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 33N77W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA
NEAR  30N81W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.
THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
32N55W 30N60W 27N75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS
ALONG 28N60W 20N73W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF
THE TROUGH.  A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 27N50W 26N55W.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N24W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS W OF 40W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 12N30W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 3N-20N BETWEEN 23W-35W.  WLY ZONAL FLOW IS
N OF 20N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA




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